IBM vs Oracle: which job is safer?
Layoff risk for Engineering roles in India, scored this morning from confirmed layoffs, WARN filings, earnings, hiring and news signals.
IBM
IBM • Enterprise IT
- 7-day move
- +1
- Employee reports
- 1 in 30d
- Safer than
- 33% of 78
- Layoffs (1 yr)
- None on record
Most recent confirmed cut: Aug 26, 2024, 1,000 roles.
Full IBM reportOracle
ORCL • Enterprise Software
- 7-day move
- +8
- Employee reports
- 3 in 30d
- Safer than
- 1% of 78
- Layoffs (1 yr)
- 4 · 21,830 roles
Most recent confirmed cut: Jun 23, 2026, 21,000 roles.
Full Oracle reportIBM vs Oracle, signal by signal
| Signal | IBM | Oracle |
|---|---|---|
| Layoff risk score | 32 / 100 | 74 / 100 |
| Risk band | MODERATE | HIGH |
| 7-day move | +1 | +8 |
| 30-day move | +1 | +4 |
| Confirmed layoffs (1 yr) | 0 | 4 |
| Disclosed roles cut (1 yr) | 0 | 21,830 |
| WARN notices (7 d) | 0 | 0 |
| Layoff headlines (7 d) | 0 | 7 |
| Employee sentiment | stable | panic |
| Employee-reported layoffs (30 d) | 1 | 3 |
| Employee mood votes (30 d) | 1 · 0% worried | 18 · 83% worried |
Green marks the safer side of each row. Lower is better on every risk signal except open roles and revenue growth, where more is the healthier reading.
90-day risk trend, side by side
Should you switch from IBM to Oracle?
IBM scores 32/100 (moderate risk) against Oracle's 74/100 (high) for Engineering roles in India — a 42-point gap. What sits behind the gap: Oracle has confirmed 21,830 roles across 4 announcements in the past year against none at IBM, and Oracle has 3 employee-reported layoffs in the last 30 days against 1 at IBM.
Direction matters as much as level. Over the last 30 days IBM's risk score rose 1 point and Oracle's rose 4 points. That is widening the gap in IBM's favour, so today's verdict is being reinforced rather than eroded.
On confirmed events, IBM has no confirmed layoff in the past year. Oracle has 4 confirmed layoffs totalling 21,830 disclosed roles, the latest on Jun 23. Confirmed cuts are the heaviest input to the score and they decay on a half-life rather than expiring, so a large recent round keeps weighing on a company for months while an old one fades gradually.
In the last seven days: IBM added 1 point: last quarter missed estimates by 0.1%. Oracle added 8 points: a still-weighted cut of 21,000 roles (13% of staff) on Jun 23.
Employee sentiment, blended from anonymous reports and the data signals, reads stable at IBM and panic at Oracle, though on only 4 employee reports between them in the last 30 days. Sentiment moves earlier than confirmed events but is far noisier, so treat it as a leading indicator rather than a score.
One caveat worth stating plainly: this compares employer-level risk, not your risk. Any engineering role on a revenue-critical team at the riskier company can be safer than a cost-centre role at the safer one. Read the score as the weather, not the forecast for your specific seat.