IBM vs Oracle: which job is safer?
Layoff risk for Engineering roles in India, scored this morning from confirmed layoffs, WARN filings, earnings, hiring and news signals.
IBM
IBM • Enterprise IT
- 7-day move
- no change
- Employee reports
- None
- Safer than
- 30% of 89
- Layoffs (1 yr)
- None on record
Most recent confirmed cut: Aug 26, 2024, 1,000 roles.
Full IBM reportOracle
ORCL • Enterprise Software
- 7-day move
- -5
- Employee reports
- 1 in 30d
- Safer than
- 3% of 89
- Layoffs (1 yr)
- 3 · 22,275 roles
Most recent confirmed cut: Sep 14, 2026, 800 roles.
Full Oracle reportIBM vs Oracle, signal by signal
| Signal | IBM | Oracle |
|---|---|---|
| Layoff risk score | 34 / 100 | 54 / 100 |
| Risk band | MODERATE | HIGH |
| 7-day move | 0 | -5 |
| 30-day move | +2 | -27 |
| Confirmed layoffs (1 yr) | 0 | 3 |
| Disclosed roles cut (1 yr) | 0 | 22,275 |
| WARN notices (7 d) | 0 | 18 |
| Layoff headlines (7 d) | 0 | 0 |
| Employee sentiment | stable | panic |
| Employee-reported layoffs (30 d) | 0 | 1 |
Green marks the safer side of each row. Lower is better on every risk signal except open roles and revenue growth, where more is the healthier reading.
90-day risk trend, side by side
Should you switch from IBM to Oracle?
IBM scores 34/100 (moderate risk) against Oracle's 54/100 (high) for Engineering roles in India — a 20-point gap. What sits behind the gap: Oracle has confirmed 22,275 roles across 3 announcements in the past year against none at IBM. Cutting the other way, Oracle's risk fell 27 points over the last 30 days while IBM's rose 2 points.
Direction matters as much as level. Over the last 30 days IBM's risk score rose 2 points and Oracle's fell 27 points. That is narrowing the gap, so the current verdict is the weaker of the two readings — check it again before you sign anything.
On confirmed events, IBM has no confirmed layoff in the past year. Oracle has 3 confirmed layoffs totalling 22,275 disclosed roles, the latest on Sep 14. Confirmed cuts are the heaviest input to the score and they decay on a half-life rather than expiring, so a large recent round keeps weighing on a company for months while an old one fades gradually.
In the last seven days: Oracle shed 5 points: its Sep 14 cut of 800 roles decaying out of the window, 30 days on; and 18 WARN notices filed with state labour departments this week.
Employee sentiment, blended from anonymous reports and the data signals, reads stable at IBM and panic at Oracle, though on only 1 employee report between them in the last 30 days. Sentiment moves earlier than confirmed events but is far noisier, so treat it as a leading indicator rather than a score.
One caveat worth stating plainly: this compares employer-level risk, not your risk. Any engineering role on a revenue-critical team at the riskier company can be safer than a cost-centre role at the safer one. Read the score as the weather, not the forecast for your specific seat.